Even Under Biden, the U.S. Was Still Obstructing Global Climate Goals
The other worrying possibility, advocates say, is that the transition team’s quest to rid the federal government of civil servants—including through the so-called Department of Governmental Efficiency—might take out the career diplomats who typically staff U.N. negotiations. If the next administration clears house, that could make way for the U.S. to have a much more openly obstructionist presence in climate and environmental talks than it did during Trump’s first term.
U.N. negotiations, though, are just one part of the equation for determining whether the world can reduce greenhouse gas emissions at scale, adapt to the effects of the climate crisis, and recover from the fires, storms, and floods that it’s strengthening. Major questions remain as to how this Trump White House will engage with the International Monetary Fund, for instance, where the U.S. enjoys de facto veto power. Debt-distressed countries burdened with onerous loan-repayment terms from the IMF—and made to pay arguably extortionary surcharges—find it difficult to fund basic infrastructure and public services, let alone transition off fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy. Here too, “there’s huge continuity,” and the U.S. has had a “mostly negative influence,” says economist Jayati Ghosh. “The best thing that could happen to the IMF is for the U.S. to withdraw from it.” Unlike the UNFCCC, though, the IMF still commands considerable power, money, and influence—making a U.S. withdrawal unlikely.
Over the last several years under Biden, the U.S. has also become increasingly willing to weaponize the tools of economic statecraft, expanding its already considerable sanctions and tariff regime. Countries have already been exploring more regionally based economic structures that enable them to engage in different kinds of trade and credit, sidestepping Western banks and payment systems that are susceptible to U.S. geopolitical meddling. The Trump administration could accelerate that process.
