How the Midterms Could Shrink Red State America—and Why It Matters

The Democrats are poised to gain control of the House and potentially the Senate this November, which would substantially weaken President Trump and MAGA at the national level. But many of the worst Republican ideas are implemented at the state level, and as long as Trump is in the White House blocking progress of any sort at the federal level, the only path to sane, just policies is through the states. So that’s why it’s great and super-important news that Democrats could also flip a number of state legislatures and governorships this November, ending the GOP’s total grip on many states and giving Democrats complete power in several others.

If things go right this fall, a majority of Americans will live in Democratic “trifecta” states, and only a quarter in Republican trifecta states. Such a shift would greatly improve the lives of millions of Americans, as well as strengthen our democracy.

Currently, Republicans control the state legislature and the governor’s office in 23 states, including virtually the entire South and Mountain West. About 42 percent of Americans (141 million) live in those states, according to Ballotpedia. In contrast, 39 percent of Americans (133 million) live in the 16 states (mostly on the coasts) where Democrats have control. In the other 11 states, a party controls one of the houses of the legislature or the governor’s office but not all three. You might say that seems about right. America is about equally divided between the two parties, and about half of Americans live in totally red states and about half in totally blue ones.

But what happens in red states isn’t something Democrats or small-d democrats should consider acceptable. States under total Republican control are constantly passing restrictions on abortion and transgender rights, rolling back academic freedom at colleges, making it harder for Black people, college students, and other-left leaning constituencies to vote, and implementing a plutocratic economic agenda of low taxes for the wealthy and corporations and low wages and meager public benefits for everyone else. These states are “Laboratories Against Democracy,” the title of a book by University of California, Berkeley political scientist Jake Grumbach that describes how radical GOP policymakers at the state level have become.

But if the blue wave is as strong as polls suggest, many fewer Americans will live under unified GOP rule than do today. Democratic candidate Rob Sands is favored to win the gubernatorial election in Iowa. Democratic candidates in Ohio and Georgia have about even odds, and Texas’s Gina Hinojosa is an underdog but has a path to victory there. The party could also gain control of the state House in New Hampshire, another state where Republicans currently have a trifecta. If Democrats won in those five states, only about 25 percent of Americans would live in GOP-controlled states, a huge decrease from the current 42 percent. That’s because these are some of the biggest states in the country: Texas (second biggest, 31 million people); Ohio (seventh, 12 million); Georgia (eighth, 11 million.)

Democratic governors could veto the racist, anti-democratic, plutocratic policies that emerge from their state legislatures. They could oppose hyper-aggressive gerrymandering schemes being pushed by GOP legislators that make it easier for Republicans to control state legislatures and the U.S. House without winning that many voters. And as Georgia incumbent Governor Brian Kemp showed in 2020, governors and state legislatures often play a major role in certifying presidential election results. Having Democratic governors in these states will make it harder for Republicans to again attempt to cheat and overturn the results of an election that they don’t win.

But this November isn’t just an opportunity for Democrats to have a better defense in states that lean red. Democrats already hold the governor’s mansion and can gain total control of the government through legislative elections this fall in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Multistate, which tracks state elections, says Democrats have a decent chance of winning the state House and Senate in all five states. Democrats also need to win the gubernatorial contests in those states again. Wisconsin is considered a toss-up but Democrats are favored in the other five. They could also win the governorship and therefore achieve a trifecta in Nevada, where Democrats already control both houses of the state legislature.

If Democrats won in those six states, an outright majority of Americans (52 percent) would live in a blue state trifecta. Blue states aren’t panaceas, and writers at The New York Times and other centrist publications rightly harp on high housing prices and other ills of Democratic states. But those writers rarely live in red states and don’t seem like they are itching to move to them. Why not? Because blue states are at least trying to achieve the deeper, more equitable democracy of our dreams. They have expanded Medicaid through Obamacare, raised their minimum wages, and are constantly trying to make it easier, not harder to vote.

Looking to 2028, it will be harder for Republicans to try to overturn the election results if Democrats are in total control of key swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

None of this is guaranteed for Democrats. Republicans of course have a good chance to win in any state where they currently have the state legislature or the governorship—-they had to win to gain such control in the first place. And Democrats are likely to lose two governorships that they now hold, in Kansas this fall and Kentucky next year, turning those into red trifecta states.

But Trump remains deeply unpopular, it’s hard to see Republicans avoiding a blowout. And if that happens, the ramifications won’t just be in Washington. We’ll see good gridlock in the South and Southwest, as Republican state legislators can no longer pass whatever hateful, plutocratic policies they want. And there will be less gridlock in the Midwest and Southwest, as Democratic officials are finally able to pass policies to make their residents’ lives better.

We’ve been split into Two Americas for a long time and that’s likely to continue. So the best we can hope for is what’s likely to happen in November—-the pluralistic social democracy America being practiced in the blue states keeps expanding while the anti-democratic, plutocratic red state America shrinks.

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