Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Adrien Brody vs. Timothée Chalamet, but Who Wins?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Actor commentary (Updated Feb. 6, 2025): Adrien Brody is no stranger to the Oscars. More than two decades ago, he made history as the youngest-ever best actor winner for his haunting performance in 2002’s Holocaust drama “The Pianist.” Since then, he has remained a steady presence in Hollywood, taking on roles in high-profile films such as “King Kong,” “Midnight in Paris,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” However, despite his consistent work, Brody’s post-Oscar career hasn’t always positioned him as a frontrunner for a second Academy Award — until now.

With a Golden Globe win already under his belt for “The Brutalist,” Brody has re-emerged as a formidable contender in the best actor race. His performance in Brady Corbet’s historical epic has garnered widespread acclaim, and his campaign is gaining traction at a crucial moment. But can he maintain the momentum?

Enter “A Complete Unknown,” the Bob Dylan biopic that has been surging in recent weeks. The film is not just a contender — it’s an Oscar-friendly contender, the kind that plays directly to the sensibilities of older Academy voters who admire classic Hollywood craftsmanship. It also has star power: Timothée Chalamet, who portrays Dylan, recently hosted “Saturday Night Live” in a high-profile moment that only added to the film’s visibility. He very well could break Brody’s previous record, and become the youngest winner in history.

Ultimately, timing is everything. The Screen Actors Guild Awards could be a turning point in the race. Will they solidify Brody’s status as the industry’s choice, or will Chalamet ride the wave of A Complete Unknown? And across the pond, will the BAFTA members embrace a film so deeply rooted in American music history? The next few weeks will provide the answers — and potentially reshape the best actor race entirely.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.