Would Putin prefer Trump or Harris in the White House?

Vladimir Putin’s response to a question about the U.S. presidential election this September has been the subject of speculation as to which presidential candidate the Russian president would find most appealing.

Asked if he preferred Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, Putin commented wryly that his “favorite” was the current president, Joe Biden, who “recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris.”

His teasing mention of Harris’ “expressive and infectious laugh” showed a carefully noncommittal tone while highlighting Russia’s view that the upcoming U.S. election presents two equally unappealing choices.

Analysts say neither Harris nor Trump offers much potential for improving U.S.-Russia relations, which remain at post-Cold War lows. Harris’s stance on Russia has been firm, while Trump’s complex relationship with the Kremlin included imposing extensive sanctions during his administration, despite his favorable comments on Putin as a leader.

Ukraine Aid and Russia Relations

The election outcome could significantly influence U.S. policy on Ukraine.

Harris is seen as likely to continue Biden’s extensive military and financial support for Ukraine, while outwardly supporting its leader President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Trump, on the other hand, touts his personal rapport with Putin, claiming he could secure a ceasefire “in 24 hours.” His reluctance to detail a plan has sparked speculation he might ease sanctions on Russia as part of a potential negotiation strategy.

During a recent debate, Trump avoided directly stating his stance on a Ukrainian victory, while Harris defended the Western-backed efforts to secure Kyiv.

Human Rights and NATO

Harris’ strong stance on human rights issues such as the death of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, underscores her confrontational approach toward Russia, especially on human rights.

She was among the first to comment on Navalny’s death, denouncing Putin’s “brutality.” Trump, contrastingly, delayed comment, ultimately drawing a comparison between Navalny’s treatment and his own legal battles.

Trump has advocated for legislation focused on “traditional values,” echoing rhetoric used in Russia to curb LGBTQ+ rights. His view of Democrats as “the enemy within” similarly mirrors Putin’s stance on domestic opposition.

On NATO, Trump has long pressured allies to increase military spending, questioning America’s obligations under the NATO mutual-defense clause. Harris, however, has emphasized an “ironclad” commitment to NATO, although her stance on Ukraine’s potential membership remains unclear.

Arms Control Uncertainty

Nuclear arms control remains another focal issue. The last major U.S.-Russia arms treaty, New START, is set to expire in 2026. Biden renewed the treaty, and Harris is expected to continue supporting it. Meanwhile, Russia suspended its participation in 2023, prompting the U.S. to stop sharing missile information.

Trump, who withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, has called for a new nuclear accord that would include both Russia and China. Putin’s vague reaction underscores the Kremlin’s view of the election as presenting two familiar but unfavorable choices for Russian interests.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press