Young Voters in These Two States Could Make or Break Harris’s Chances

But the apathetic may outnumber the engaged. Like Nevada, Arizona has a significant share of young people. Nearly a quarter of the population is between the ages of 20 and 34; an even larger share are under the age of 19, representing the next generation of potential voters. A June report by professors at Arizona State University found voters between the age of 20 and 30 comprise 19 percent of the Arizona voting-age population and 18 percent of all registered voters in the state; however, they only accounted for 10 percent of the vote in 2022. Forty-nine percent of these voters are unaffiliated.

Chuck Coughlin, a Democratic strategist based in Arizona, said that young voters were expected to comprise less than 12 percent of the electorate. If Harris can expand on those margins, she wins in bellwether states, he predicted; but that requires a certain level of enthusiasm. “I think—as much as a 62-year-old white man can speak to these things—[young voters] tend to opt out. They’re like, ‘I don’t want to deal with this shit anymore’ … without a recognition of what crucial role they can play in the election,” he said.

It’s a familiar pattern for Ashton, a 17-year-old high school student from Phoenix on Greenfield’s canvassing team, who was frustrated that he is just slightly too young to vote in this election. His classmates who are of age, he said, are generally less than thrilled to cast their vote. “I think there is a difference between ‘excited to vote,’ and ‘going to vote,’” he said. Still, while Harris may not be the “dream candidate” for young voters, Ashton argued, “we understand that minimal change is still change.”